My #1 XPRIZE COVID model was very accurate for >9 weeks. My projected mid-March end to the pandemic became delayed by the emergence of new variants- most importantly B.1.526 (NY originating variant). Stay tuned for more in depth analysis of the impact of the new variants and an updated model that includes variants and vaccines.

– Certain counties are returning to active case levels that are much safer (cream colored as tracked here

– You can read about the XPRIZE finalists here

US by State

About: Projections were created by the founder of Real Science, Dr. Christin Glorioso. I produced a separate SIR model for each county with an empirically derived beta from real data from that county. US and state level data are calculated from the sum of the county model results. The primary data are from the JHU COVID repository. Feel free to reach out to me for more details. You can join the site and message me or leave a comment below.

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