32 days and counting until my #1 XPRIZE COVID model predicts that US cases will drop below ~5k/day*

-We hit a grim milestone, now more than 500,000 deaths from COVID. Maybe we can take a moment of silence for these people and their families.

-Deaths and Hospitalizations are droppingAverage new cases are now down to October 2020 levels.

– Certain counties are returning to active case levels that are much safer (cream colored as tracked here

– 17.3 doses of vaccine have been given/100 people.- We are vaccinating at 1.61 million doses/day, which is 61% faster than the Biden target goal.

– 79% of US vaccine supply has been used (the total supply is not a static number– we should get >100 million doses in Q1– so far we have administered half of that)

– My COVID cases prediction model has been accurate for >8 weeks now (untouched since Dec. 21).- We are #1 out of 104 teams for the US in the XPRIZE competition.

– You can read about the XPRIZE finalists here

* Potential caveats: My projected mid-March end to the pandemic could be delayed by schools/universities opening (super spreader environments), reinfections, and/or the Brazil variant, which may (or may not) be able to infect people who have had COVID already or have been vaccinated. We urgently need more testing/research to track and model this variant.

US by State

About: Projections were created by the founder of Real Science, Dr. Christin Glorioso. I produced a separate SIR model for each county with an empirically derived beta from real data from that county. US and state level data are calculated from the sum of the county model results. The primary data are from the JHU COVID repository. Feel free to reach out to me for more details. You can join the site and message me or leave a comment below.

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