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Welcome to the Real Science Community.
Real Science is a project of the non-profit research and advocacy organization, Academics for the Future of Science, Co-Founded by Dr. Glorioso during her postdoc at MIT. Part COVID-tracking, part research and predictive analytics, part blog, and part social networking, Real Science is dedicated to connecting scientists to each other and directly with the world. It was born out of frustration with science news misinformation that has been especially egregious during the COVID-19 pandemic; and also the need for speed in scientific innovation.
You can:
- Use our risk calculator to determine your covid risk when doing activities.
- Read, comment, and contribute to the Blog
- Utilize the real-time COVID-tracking and COVID-predictions. My COVID cases predictive model was #1 in the XPRIZE Pandemic Response Challenge.
- Connect and collaborate in groups using social networking profiles
Please feel free to reach out with feedback.
Covid-Projections
My #1 XPRIZE COVID model was very accurate for >9 weeks. My projected mid-March end to the pandemic became delayed by the emergence of new variants- most importantly B.1.526 (NY originating variant). Stay tuned for more in depth analysis of the impact of the new variants and an updated model that includes variants and vaccines.
– Certain counties are returning to active case levels that are much safer (cream colored as tracked here https://realscience.community/covid_tracking-2/).
– You can read about the XPRIZE finalists here https://rb.gy/zzpdfj
US by State
About: Projections were created by the founder of Real Science, Dr. Christin Glorioso. I produced a separate SIR model for each county with an empirically derived beta from real data from that county. US and state level data are calculated from the sum of the county model results. The primary data are from the JHU COVID repository. Feel free to reach out to me for more details. You can join the site and message me or leave a comment below.
Blog
What we should be focused on in the Pandemic… how to live with it.
People and the news are extremely focused on getting people vaccinated right now and I agree that would be helpful. But I don’t think that is the most important thing because I don’t think it will actually end the Pandemic… even if we got to 90% vaccinated…People and the news are extremely focused on getting people vaccinated right now and I agree that would be helpful. But I don’t think that is the most important thing because I don’t think it will actually end the Pandemic… even if we got to 90% vaccinated. The virus is mutating and we are far from stopping that. We would need to vaccinate the whole world and that won’t happen this year or probably even next year and by that time we will need a new vaccine. I really think we should instead be turning our attention to how to better live with the virus because it’s here to stay for quite some time. And there will be future pandemics after this one.
Here is what I think we need to start working on to live with the virus, emphasis on the live part:
1. Safer schools, businesses, and transportation: this basically means improving air circulation and filtration– how much would it cost to put high quality filters everywhere? How can we make more things outside? How can we make more things spacious?– spread out instead of clumping in cities.
2. Better personal risk predictions to empower people to know nuances about risks for various things at various times. This is also a public health intervention…
This week in COVID- May 30th, 2021
Global Cases are dropping worldwide but are still at very high levels. Active cases are high in most of South America, India and some surrounding countries, and parts of Europe. Darker blue indicates more cases below while cream colored areas are relatively safe (<1/10,000 chances of catching COVID/day with average behavior). India and Brazil have […]
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COVID Tracking
How safe is my region?
The below interactive map reflects the safety of each Country and each County in the US and will update daily from JHU data. It is based on the number of active cases per 100,000 population. You can zoom or search for your county and there is a pop out legend. The lightest colored areas are the safest. The chances of being infected in these areas are <1/10,000 on any given day with average behavior. Additionally, these cream colored areas have R0<1 and are not spreading COVID at this time. The darkest areas reflect >1/1000 chance of being infected. Clicking on a region will pop out Active cases/per 100,000 count and the regional death rate. Individuals can lower their risk in any area by wearing a mask, social distancing, and avoiding crowded spaces.
***Please note that some Countries may be much less safe than is depicted due to lower relative testing capacity.
Estimated percent of state immune by infection plus vaccination. Adjusted from unreported cases using excess mortality and serology.
Daily new cases/million people.
Daily New Deaths/million people